Autonomous vehicles risk increasing car usage

The technology’s impact could be complicated by how it changes our relationship with our cars, according to research

Autonomous vehicles could increase car use, reducing or even eliminating promised energy savings and environmental benefits, a study has warned.

Researchers from the University of Leeds, University of Washington and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the US say the technology’s impact could be complicated by how it changes our relationship with our cars.

The study uses analysis of self-driving technology combined with data on car and truck use, driver licences, and vehicle running costs to model the impact on energy demand of various levels of automation on US roads by 2050. It identifies several efficiency benefits of driver-less vehicles and predicts the ranges of likely reductions in energy use.

However, the study predicts that the attractiveness of autonomous driving could reduce, or even outweigh, the efficiency gains. It estimates a 5-60% rise in car energy consumption due to people choosing to use automated cars when they would have previously taken an alternative mode of transport.

The study also predicts that people who find it difficult or impossible to drive will have greater access to road transport, resulting in an estimated 2-10% rise in road energy use for personal travel. Efficiency savings might also be reduced by possible higher speed limits because of the improvement in safety, and by demand for heavy extra equipment such as computers.

The researchers warn that if a high level of automation becomes the norm, transport deci-sions may require financial intervention.