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Science in this field is advancing rapidly but it is engineering that will enable these discoveries to be put into practice. So, taking input from experts across the Institution, I summarised my thoughts at a joint lecture, and in the form of a report, last November.
At the lecture, I shared the stage with Professor Emily Shuckburgh, a world-leading climate scientist. The most telling part of her presentation was a slide showing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 800,000 years, with the levels of the past few years strikingly beyond anything previously seen. Rising temperatures and sea levels correlate clearly with rising CO2.
We’ve committed to rein back our greenhouse-gas emissions to ‘net zero’ by mid-century and, in doing so, limit temperature rise to 2ºC at most and ideally to 1.5ºC. But how will this be achieved, given our huge dependence on fossil fuels for energy? I answered this by looking at the technologies we have for energy generation and use, then I looked at whole-system issues, and finally I considered economic factors. All three need to be ‘in sync’ for successful solutions. We’re all familiar with the technologies being developed – wind, solar, nuclear, electrification, hydrogen and synthetic fuels. We’re also aware of some of the system issues – such as how to deal with the variability of renewable energy sources and how to run a grid transmitting much more power.
I then went on to suggest eight critical areas where the IMechE could promote understanding of this subject. These are:
- Overcoming the variability or seasonality of energy sources in an environment very dependent on wind and solar energy;
- Intelligent energy grid management and stability;
- The future role of hydrogen;
- The availability and geopolitics of critical materials;
- Carbon capture scale-up and widespread adoption;
- Retrofitting existing housing and buildings to improve their energy performance radically;
- Replicating quickly the empirical and practical engineering knowledge gathered over 150-200 years of running fossil-fuel-based energy systems;
- And finally, the role of governments in market interventions, guarantees, subsidies, carbon pricing/credits and their effect on the flow of funds into scale-up processes.
Costs are critical
If I might quote from my report, critical to me is the fact that: “History has shown that consumers will adopt new technologies and create new markets when products cross an affordability threshold, as was the case with cars, air travel, mobile phones and washing machines. Net-zero solutions will only be adopted widely if their operating costs are broadly on par with existing solutions using energy derived from fossil fuels.”
This is all a huge challenge. We currently consume about 15GT of fossil fuels a year and thereby produce 50GT of carbon dioxide equivalent. Reversing this situation is undoubtedly the largest engineering undertaking attempted by mankind. But it does mean that engineers for decades to come will have a vital contribution to make.
Climate change and sustainability is a policy priority for our Institution, and we are continuing to work in this area, releasing policy reports as well as holding events and webinars.
Engineering a Net Zero Energy System can be downloaded from the IMechE website. The event with Professor Emily Shuckburgh can be watched on the IMechE YouTube channel.
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