Fleets of large, slender metal ghost ships cruise the world’s oceans, controlled by onboard computers and robots and monitored by their captain remotely. The ships, laden with containers filled with different kinds of products, adjust their course automatically to avoid bad weather and communicate back to show when equipment begins to malfunction.
But these unmanned vessels are never dead in the water. They’re designed with several layers of redundancy. They are less likely to go wrong without humans on board. Without the systems and accommodation needed to support humans, the ships are also more efficient, more effective and safer.
This vision of the future isn’t as far off as you may believe, says Oskar Levander, vice president of Marine Technical at Rolls-Royce. He equates the shift to unmanned ships with the transition from sail to steam, or the introduction of the container ship. “Like these changes it won’t happen overnight.” he says. “We see it as the most fundamental change happening in the near future. The impact will be dramatic. It’s not a case of if it will happen, it’s when.”
Rolls-Royce’s own “roadmap” to develop unmanned ships plans to launch the first fully autonomous vessel before 2020. The roadmap is a methodical approach to the introduction of automation technology, much of which already exists today or is being transferred from other sectors, including Rolls-Royce’s aerospace division.
However, Levander doesn’t expect fully autonomous ships to be transporting goods between continents until 2035. The reason for the lag, perhaps predictably, is regulation. The operation of ships without the minimum number of crew breaks a large number of sea-going rules and laws. The most important international treaty that governs the safety of international shipping is the Solas Convention. The next update to Solas isn’t due until 2024. The effect of this, says Levander, is that you are most likely to see unmanned ships first performing regional operations, such as ferries, near to shore, where it is easier to not only monitor and control, but also easier to legislate and insure.
The first elements of more ICT-based intelligence and automation technology in ships have already started being introduced. The latest “ship intelligence” tools enable engineers to fine tune equipment to maximise energy efficiency or monitor the status of parts in plant to organise maintenance schedules. The development and deployment of this technology is driven by market demand and extended to non-critical ship functions, says Levander. The communications and satellite positioning technology that achieves the levels of speed and reliability required for high levels of automation already exist, but in many cases have not been implemented because there is no need for it yet.
“Ships are getting more complex and there are more rules to adhere to, like exhaust gas treatment. This means the crew needs more knowledge and a much wider set of skills to run a ship, more process-like as well as mechanical engineering skills. The user interface needs to be easier to use,” says Levander.
The move to automation is a self-fulfilling path. There has always been a trend in the maritime industry to reduce crew size. In 1900 the average crew for ocean-going ships was 100. By 1950 it was under fifty, by 2000 around 10. But the requirements on crew is also increasing because of the increasing complexity of ship’s systems. This places extra pressure on just a few individuals - a pressure that can only be alleviated with increased automation and remote operation. “We have come to a point where it is extremely difficult to reduce crew size any more, because of the amount of hours people can stay awake. Most marine accidents are related to human mistakes and fatigue,” says Levander.
Automatic ships equipped with sensors and camera systems can be and need to be just as safe or safer than those staffed with humans. However, full automation won’t be suitable for every ship. Cruise ships or those with dangerous cargoes for example, will always require staff. The aim is always to reduce the element of risk in shipping, not increase it, says Levander. He extends this logic to the often-cited criticism of unmanned ships, that they would provide soft targets for pirates. An unmanned ship has no crew to take hostage. Additionally, most pirates depend on the crew to move a ship. Without a crew, they will be unable to move, making it more likely an operation to recover the ship will be successful.
But, the greatest benefit from removing the human element from ships is the freedom in design it would grant engineers and the potential gains in efficiency it would enable. Levander says: “You have no deck house, your ships are cheaper, weigh less and are able to carry more cargo. You also don’t need a lot of the systems - heating, air conditioning, sewage - it’s a long list of things. It will make ships simpler and leaner.
“Without the constraints of people we can redesign the ship entirely. We’re only scratching the surface of the possibilities right now.”
However, even unmanned ships will continue to have a human element in control, just not necessarily onboard the ship. While out at sea, they could be entirely autonomous, following a predefined course and optimising its route autonomously. When the ship nears port or a congested area, control would switch to a remote team of operators on land.
This is where Levander’s vision of the future differs from some others. The EU-funded Munin project aims to develop a fully autonomous ship, but when a ship approaches port, a crew is sent out to crew it. Levander says it does not make sense to crew the ship near a port, where communications and monitoring provision will be at its strongest. Besides, the biggest gains in ship design and efficiency only occur when a ship can be made completely unmanned, he says.
However, he admits there are several key challenges that remain to be solved with unmanned shipping. Although piracy concerns may be abated, IT security needs to be a priority. The reliability and redundancy of machinery on board ships also needs to be increased. He says: “Where we need the most development is in terms of reliability. The progress will be step-by-step: first more remote monitoring, slowly going to controlling those machines on shore, then the same with navigation, all the time reducing person by person with automatic systems.
“You can fix a small thing if something happens, like when engineers used to travel on airlines. With unmanned ships, if something happens, you need a duplicate system. The whole industry’s mentality is that there always has to be crew present to do the small things on board and that has to change. We need more standardisation, across whole systems.”
Like other transport sectors, shipping’s future will include more automation and less humans. If the idea of ghost ships roaming the seas automatically is at first spooky, it’s time for everyone, including the maritime sector itself, to get used to the idea.