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The international team used data from every UK MOT test between 2005 and 2022, representing nearly 300 million cars, to estimate vehicle longevity and analyse survival rates for different powertrains. They found that early BEVs were less reliable than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, but rapid advances in technology have provided BEVs with comparable lifespans – even with more intense use.
Battery-powered cars now have a lifespan of 18.4 years and can travel up to 124,000 miles (200,000km), surpassing the mileage of conventional petrol cars, according to the researchers from the University of Birmingham, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), University of California San Diego and University of Bern, Switzerland. Diesel cars have a lifetime of 16.8 years, while petrol cars last slightly longer at 18.7.
The longevity findings follow figures released last year by ADAC (the General Germany Automobile Club), which showed that recently purchased EVs were less prone to breakdowns than petrol or diesel cars of the same age. For every 1,000 vehicles registered in 2020, EVs had 1.9 fewer breakdowns than combustion engines. For cars registered in 2021, EVs increased this lead to 3.6.
One advantage for EVs is that their drivetrains typically have 20 or fewer parts, according to the AA, while ICE vehicles can have as many as 2,000 moving parts.
The team behind the new research found that BEVs demonstrated the most rapid improvement in reliability, with a 12% lower likelihood of failure (hazard rate) for each successive year of production, compared with 6.7% for petrol and 1.9% for diesel vehicles.
They also identified top-performing brands in terms of vehicle longevity, with Tesla leading among BEVs, and Audi and Skoda leading petrol and diesel respectively.
“No longer just a niche option, BEVs are a viable and sustainable alternative to traditional vehicles – a significant step towards achieving a net-zero carbon future,” said co-author Dr Viet Nguyen-Tien from LSE.
Co-author Robert Elliott, professor of economics at the University of Birmingham, said: “BEVs offer significant environmental benefits, especially as Europe switches to a more renewable energy mix. Despite higher initial emissions from production, a long-lasting electric vehicle can quickly offset its carbon footprint, contributing to the fight against climate change – making them a more sustainable long-term option.
“Our findings offer consumers reliable data to make informed decisions about their vehicle purchases, while policymakers can use our insights to shape regulations and incentives that promote the adoption of durable and environmentally friendly vehicles and plan ahead their end-of-life treatment.”
The research was published in Nature Energy.
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