Prime minister Rishi Sunak announced alterations to some green policies this week, including delaying the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035.
The changes, seen by many as an attempt by the Conservative government to draw battlelines ahead of the next general election, also included a watering down of phase-outs of oil and gas boilers, and the cancellation of planned energy efficiency rules for landlords.
Following the announcements, IMechE engineering policy manager Matt Rooney told Professional Engineering that the institution is “fully committed” to the net zero transition. “We are worried that these policies may put our ability to meet future carbon budgets at risk,” he said.
The UK was the first country to set legally binding carbon budgets, which limit the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted over five-year periods. Analysis by data-driven news site Carbon Brief this week found that the planned changes could put those targets “in jeopardy”, threatening the ultimate target of net zero emissions by 2050.
“The government not only has a legal obligation to meet its net zero 2050 target. It also has a commitment to hit the interim emission reduction targets it has put into law,” said Professor Piers Forster, chair of the Climate Change Committee, following the prime minister’s speech. The independent statutory body advises the government on emissions targets.
“We need to go away and do the calculations, but today's announcement is likely to take the UK further away from being able to meet its legal commitments. This, coupled with the recent unsuccessful offshore wind auction, gives us concern.
“More action is needed and we await the government's new plan for meeting their targets and look forward to receiving their response to our progress report, expected at the end of October.”
Uncertainty for business
Net zero targets can only be achieved with support for and from industry, but this week’s changes highlighted new and existing issues in the nationwide efforts to attaining those goals.
Delays to the phase-out of sales of petrol and diesel vehicles, which IMechE supports, have caused some concern amongst manufacturers.
“The government needs to do more to make zero emission vehicles a more attractive proposition for consumers/drivers,” Rooney said. “We are also concerned with policy uncertainty, especially so close to an election. That creates uncertainty for business.”
Dr Tim Fox, the previous chair of the IMechE’s process industries division, also said the changes could be “very disruptive”.
“The one thing that the profession and industry would like is some consistency and long-term commitment,” he said. “It's very disruptive to the profession and to businesses’ industrial activities to have targets changed when we're gearing up plant assets and equipment to meet those targets… it leads to a certain level of uncertainty within our profession, and within industry and business.”
Unlike some other changes, Dr Fox – co-author of IMechE report Adapting Industry to Withstand Rising Temperatures and Future Heatwaves – said the announced cancellation of new energy efficiency rules for landlords seemed to be more of a “political calculation” rather than directly related to technical or engineering challenges.
“Improving the energy efficiency of [housing] stock – particularly within an urban environment –using insulation is really a very easy win from a net zero point of view,” he said.
The change means we are likely to burn more gas as residents turn the heating on to stay warm in winter, he said, although he stressed that detailed calculations from the Climate Change Committee are needed before the ultimate effects on emissions targets are assessed.
The changes to boiler rules are understandable from an engineering point of view, he said. Sunak announced that the 2035 target for gas boiler installation would change from a 100% phase-out to 80%, with the same target for off-grid oil boilers, which had previously faced a 2026 ban.
Speaking about domestic gas boilers, Dr Fox said: “The issue there is around an ability to actually physically make that change, regardless of whether it's 80% or 100%.”
Only 60,000 heat pumps were installed last year, he said, which are needed to replace gas boilers. “On that basis that would take hundreds of years to achieve either the 80% target or the 100% target,” he said.
“The government really needs to do something more than just offer more money within the grant… there's a deeper issue there, in engaging the public and being willing to go through all the disruption and everything that is involved in having your boiler replaced.”
The government’s focus on the power grid and planning reform is welcome however, Rooney said, as it could be a “key bottleneck” in net zero delivery.
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Content published by Professional Engineering does not necessarily represent the views of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.