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Rail reform related to the formation of Great British Railways (GBR) and uncertainty over rail enhancements and major project budgets will lead to a hiatus, according to 83% of business leaders surveyed by the Railway Industry Association (RIA).
The three main responses planned by companies are freezing or slowing recruitment (51%, up from 44% in 2023), prioritising work outside the UK (51%, up from 42% in 2023), and pausing or slowing plans to expand in the UK (35%).
Released to coincide with the start of RIA’s annual conference (6 November), the survey of 250 leaders was carried out before the autumn budget on 30 October, which confirmed a number of major projects, including HS2 from Old Oak Common to Euston. It also committed the government to publishing a long-term rolling stock ‘pipeline’, which RIA said would give greater confidence to businesses.
The industry nonetheless has long-lasting concerns, said RIA chief executive Darren Caplan. “The conclusions of the survey reflect a second year of rail supply leaders being concerned about the outlook for the wider UK rail market and anxiety about their own business’s prospects more specifically,” he said.
“Over 80% forecast a hiatus in work in the year ahead, with a detailed timeline for rail reform or firm commitments for the delivery of major projects still awaited. This uncertainty adversely impacts recruitment, expansion plans and suppliers, who will seek refuge in other sectors and overseas markets if more confidence fails to return.”
The poll, published by Savanta, showed that almost half (48%) believe the industry will contract in the next year, down slightly from 54% last year. Only 26% of respondents believe that the rail supply industry will grow in the next year.
The survey also found that 46% of leaders think their business will grow in the coming year, and 29% think they will contract. “This is largely consistent with 2023, but is the lowest score of the last five years,” the RIA announcement said.
Caplan added: “The results from the survey confirm RIA’s longstanding calls for more certainty from government on which national, regional and local rail work – both track and train – it wants the railway industry to deliver in the months ahead.
“Ahead of RIA’s annual conference in London on 6-7 November, we call on the government to set out a clear roadmap for rail investment as soon as possible, including plans for rail enhancements and rolling stock procurement and refurbishment. Visibility of these plans would provide rail suppliers with the certainty they need, ultimately helping to deliver the rail services customers – both passengers and freight – want and the value for money taxpayers expect.
“We hope the 2025 survey will show an uplift in confidence, following the budget on 30 October this year, which seemed more positive about the prospects for both railway infrastructure and rolling stock pipelines.”
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