Simulation software assesses flood risk to homes, factories and offices

Recent years have shown that nowhere is safe from extreme weather related to the climate emergency. Floods, fires and storms have caused deaths in countries around the world, and destruction costing billions of pounds.

Now, a new simulation software can identify weather risks facing buildings, to calculate the likelihood of damage and pinpoint measures to protect properties.  

Developed as part of the ResCentric project at the Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics (EMI) in Freiburg, Germany, the software can evaluate the damage and downtime that office buildings, factories and homes could face from flooding caused by heavy rain and high wind.

“Extreme precipitation is extra dangerous,” said Dr Julia Rosin from Fraunhofer EMI. “It occurs more and more frequently, and often does tremendous damage. Our overarching goal is to strengthen the resilience of urban structures.”

Dr Rosin and her team are developing the platform, which can be used to assess the financial cost of damage and identify strategies to reduce it, as well as factoring in the likelihood and intensity of climate extremes.

These calculations could be useful for real estate investors, insurance companies, administrative agencies and housing companies, Fraunhofer said. Companies can import their property holdings into the software, which then calculates the damage forecast for a particular building and weather event.

This is done partly by using simplified mathematical models that represent typical building features, including structures, materials and style of construction, assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of buildings at once.

The program uses probability distributions for different parameters, such as the depth of floodwaters, how fast the water is flowing, wind intensity, hailstone size, airborne objects, and the strength of construction materials. Combining these probabilities allows Dr Rosin and her team to make statistical inferences about the likelihood of expected damage.

“You could think of it as us running calculations for a typical building and then translating the results to all buildings that are similar to the typical one,” she said.

The team currently has models for multi-storey administration and office buildings, industrial facilities and single-family homes, with plans to add further property types.

They also plan to link the software with digital city models, allowing local governments to assess the risks of climate change and take the necessary precautions, and to include the risks of heatwaves and forest fires.

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