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What will change in the rail sector during the next 10 years? One thing is for certain, says Rail Engineer editor David Shirres – it won't involve Hyperloop.
With the increasing pace of technological change, what, if any, radical developments will we see on Britain’s railways in the next 10 years? In general, passengers will not notice any significant changes apart from the withdrawal of some older trains, as large numbers of recently introduced new trains will still be in service.
One exception, subject to government decision and timetables, should be the first HS2 services. State-of-the-art high-speed trains will operate at more than 300km/h to release capacity on the conventional network.
There will also be a new form of rail traction by 2030 – with the imperative to decarbonise, hydrogen-powered trains will replace diesel units on some rural routes. Yet, owing to its constraints, hydrogen is unsuitable for high-speed, high-capacity railways and so can only play a small part in reducing railway carbon dioxide emissions. Electrification is the only real solution but the Department for Transport is yet to be convinced, as shown by its decision not to electrify the new east-west railway between Cambridge and Oxford.
The next 10 years will see the cost of electrification reduced through initiatives such as surge arresters to minimise bridge reconstructions. However, to be fully cost effective, electrification requires a rolling programme. Although the Scottish government is committed to such a programme, it remains to be seen whether Westminster will be.
One radical train proposal is the development of active suspension and rail-wheel steering that could eliminate the need for bogies. This could enable double-decker coaches to be produced within the restricted UK loading gauge. It is unlikely that such a vehicle could be in service in the next 10 years but a technology demonstrator may have been developed.
There will be significant developments in telecommunications and data management. 2G GSM-R track-to-train radio has been around for more than 25 years and needs updating.
The International Union of Railways is also developing a Future Railway Mobile Communication System specification that is likely to require 5G, which will first be deployed in the late 2020s. This will provide much-needed extra bandwidth for train operational, engineering and business data. This will support the introduction of in-cab signalling, which will offer some capacity benefit and provide drivers with an improved ergonomic display of the status of the route ahead.
By 2030, trackside signalling will have been removed at some locations. There will also be increased use of traffic management systems and connected driver advisory systems that advise drivers of the best junction approach speed, increasing punctuality by optimising the flow of trains on an increasingly crowded network.
Data from thousands of sensors on new trains will improve reliability and reduce costs through the introduction of predictive maintenance. Infrastructure reliability should also improve with increasing use of smart equipment. Some of Network Rail’s infrastructure monitoring trains will likely be replaced by unattended infrastructure monitoring systems on service trains. Smart ticketing and much better realtime customer information from apps using open railway operations data should bring benefits for passengers.
One thing that will not happen is Hyperloop, which has no credible engineering analysis of all the components it needs to operate as a transport system. By 2030 it will be evident that its glossy publicity claims are false. In contrast the modern railway is a proven system that has evolved over 200 years. With no plausible engineering alternative to match the carrying capacity of steel wheels on steel rails, railways will continue to develop for many years beyond 2030.
Read our expert predictions for other sectors:
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