Articles
After all, it’s the time of year when photovoltaic (PV) panel installations put in place in the rainier months start to make their first significant contributions to the grid. But the knock-on impacts of the coronavirus pandemic created some truly unique conditions in the UK this year.
Just after midday on 20 April, an all-time solar generation peak of 9.68GW was recorded – surpassing the previous record of 9.55GW set on 14 May 2019. When the apex was reached, solar energy was meeting nearly 30% of electricity demand across the country. “At a time when most of us are working remotely, we can say that solar is truly keeping the wi-fi on,” said Chris Hewett, the chief executive of the Solar Trade Association.
The lockdown measures put in place to prevent the spread of Covid-19 partly set the stage for solar’s record-breaking ascent. Air pollution – which obscures sunlight and dampens solar panel efficiency – has famously dropped across the world’s locked-down cities. When combined with a bout of spring sunshine and some optimal temperatures, falling pollution figures created an ideal environment for PV power generation.
Energy demand falling
There is no doubt that the ongoing pandemic will reshape the global energy industry as we know it. While it’s still too soon to discern the nature and scope of these changes, renewable technologies look sure to emerge in a strong position. The virus could lead to a “staggering” drop in global energy demand of 6% this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This has been felt most acutely by fossil-fuel producers, with oil prices in the US turning negative for the first time in history during April. “Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
The logic behind the resilience of renewables is simple: solar panels and wind turbines are cheaper to run than fossil-fuel plants, and therefore receive priority access to the grid in many places. In recent years, plummeting prices have cemented solar PV as renewable energy’s biggest success story to date. The cost of solar power has fallen by 85% in the past decade, while wind energy dropped 50%. Once again, the factors behind this phenomenon are easy to understand. Generous government subsidy schemes unlocked economies of scale.
According to a 2019 report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the accelerated deployment of solar PV alone could lead to emission reductions of 4.9 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2050. This figure represents just over a fifth of the agency’s total calculated emission reduction potential in the energy sector. However, a transformation of this size could only be made possible through a significant upscaling of solar capacity. IRENA estimates that capacity would have to increase almost six times – from 480GW in 2018 to 2,840GW by 2030 – to align with its maximum potential scenario.
Needless to say, enhanced policy support will be critical in rolling out PV infrastructure. Perhaps equally important is the development of a range of battery storage solutions, which are capable of storing excess solar energy when it’s not needed by individual households, communities or the grid. There are still challenges around mining materials and recycling solar panels and batteries.
Costs tumble
Renewable energy research organisation BloombergNEF (BNEF) recently estimated that the average capacity of battery storage projects is now around 30MWh, which is a fourfold rise from just four years ago. Researchers credit increasing project sizes, a growing manufacturing base and more energy dense battery chemistries with halving the cost of storing energy since 2018. Once again, increased scale in solar is unlocking cost reductions that would have been unthinkable in the past. Ten years ago, solar generation costs exceeded $300/MWh. The best-performing projects of today can achieve costs below $30/MWh.
In March, it was revealed that building new wind and solar plants will soon be cheaper in every major market than operating coal power stations. Whether governments and investors will now choose to realise these cost reductions in a world upturned by a pandemic remains to be seen. In a world of uncertainty, the future for solar still looks bright.
Want the best engineering stories delivered straight to your inbox? The Professional Engineering newsletter gives you vital updates on the most cutting-edge engineering and exciting new job opportunities. To sign up, click here.
Content published by Professional Engineering does not necessarily represent the views of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.